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Army, king don't hold the right keys to solving Thailand's impasse

BANGKOK -- In previous crises, Thailand has tended to look to its two most powerful institutions, the palace or the army, to cut the political Gordian knot.

Either or both might be able to provide some temporary respite to the current chaos, which has closed one of Asia's biggest airports and brought the "Land of Smiles" to the brink of all-out bloodletting between pro- and anti-government gangs.

But neither King Bhumibol Adulyadej nor the military has the power to bridge the fundamental social divide that lies near the heart of the conflict -- the yawning gulf between the bright lights of Bangkok and the upcountry rural masses.

"I don't see any near-term resolution," said Robert Broadfoot of the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy in Hong Kong. "There is a fundamental structural divide in Thai society. There is an urban-rural divide, and this is not just going to go away." Army chief Anupong Paochinda has repeatedly said he will not launch a coup, mindful of the 2006 putsch against former leader Thaksin Shinawatra that led rural voters, who benefited from his cheap healthcare and rural credit programmes, to return a pro-Thaksin administration in a 2007 election.

Anupong's latest assertion came on Wednesday when he told a televised news conference: "I chose not to because it will not solve the problem."

Instead, he laid out a compromise plan, telling the government to call another election and the People's Alliance for Democrcy (PAD) protesters to leave Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi airport and stop a six-month street campaign that is hitting the economy.

It took less than an hour for both sides to toss his suggestions back in his face.

Although the army's sympathies appear to lie more with the PAD than government -- Anupong refused to take any action under emergency law in September against the PAD's occupation of Government House -- it is desperate not to appear one-sided.

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