“They want a quick resolution. The longer it lasts, the harder it will be to translate military success into political gains,” she said. “Hezbollah’s image will be hurt more and more by the day”, if sectarian instability persists.

Saad-Ghorayeb said Hezbollah’s objective was not to take territory or topple the government, but to deter any future challenge to its weaponry and its “resistance” to Israel.

Siniora’s government has been pressed by the United States and others to pursue efforts to disarm Hezbollah in line with U.N. resolutions, but its impotence to do so has been exposed.

“The message was loud and clear,” Safa said. “What happened last week was primarily to create this buffer to protect the weapons. Neither Siniora’s government nor any future one will dare to talk about weapons without Hezbollah’s consent.”

That will not stop Washington from returning to the issue, a reminder that prospects for success in Qatar depend as much on foreign powers as on the Lebanese faction leaders they support.

“That’s part of the problem of Lebanon not being able to find a Lebanese solution, but being hostage — by choice or by dysfunctional Lebanese politics — to bigger confrontations between Iran, Syria, the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia,” said Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East program.

Holding the dialogue in Qatar, on better terms with Syria and Iran than with Arab heavyweight Saudi Arabia, is in itself a subtle sign of how the power balance has shifted in Lebanon.

“Saudi Arabia has been very angered by what took place and is suspicious of an Iranian hand in it,” Salem said. “For these two big players to be fiercely opposed to each other in a small country like Lebanon could have devastating consequences.”

Last week’s bloodshed was shocking enough for a country still rebuilding from civil war. Lebanon’s role as a fulcrum of regional rivalries means the stakes in Qatar will be high.

The risks of failure?

“A round two of violence that might be fratricide, a civil war,” Safa said. “Sectarian strife is still containable, but we saw a rehearsal of what might happen and it doesn’t look good.”

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