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Updated Wednesday, December 30, 2009 10:31 am TWN, The Los Angeles Times

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2009: A year of war for the U.S. — and progress

In Iraq, 2009 was the year of transitions, and they turned out to be relatively smooth. Despite catastrophic attacks in August, October and December and an ongoing level of violence that still makes it a very troubled place, Iraq has done reasonably well in statistical terms. Violence has not increased even as U.S. forces have generally reduced their role. Another 10,000 “Sons of Iraq” have been hired into permanent jobs by the government, reducing the odds of a Sunni backlash against the Shiite-led government, and the economy has survived the decline in global oil prices. Iraqi elections are now scheduled for March, so 2010 needs to be another year of smooth transitions, especially as U.S. forces are scheduled to decline to 50,000 by summer's end. Though much could still go wrong, Iraq is holding together.

In Pakistan, 2009 was the year of government action. Major government military initiatives in the Swat Valley and South Waziristan reflected a new determination against the Pakistani Taliban. Its fighters have responded brutally with more suicide attacks against innocent civilians. But momentum may be shifting to the government's side. The Pakistani population, though fed up with its politicians (and the United States), is even more angry with extremists these days. Successful U.S. drone attacks against Baitullah Mahsud of the Pakistani Taliban and other top leaders, including a key al-Qaida figure in December, have helped change trends as well. That said, in terms of the basic strength of its economy and society, Pakistan is still in serious condition; the global recession has hurt it badly and increased the challenge of educating and employing Pakistan's masses of youth.

In Afghanistan, 2009 was the year of political milestones. These included momentous decisions about the war by President Barack Obama here in the United States, of course, and by the Afghan people as they voted for Hamid Karzai in sufficient numbers to give him a second term as president. It was also a year of tougher fighting. In addition to the American losses noted above, and 200 more NATO deaths, Afghan security forces again lost more than 1,000 personnel (a number similar to the year's toll on Pakistani security forces and about twice the combined losses of Iraq's army and police). However, as McChrystal noted in recent congressional testimony, our clearing operations have begun to change the momentum in places. Next year, serious reform of the Afghan police must occur, and Karzai must accelerate his anti-corruption efforts. Don't expect miracles on either front, but moderate progress would seem probable. The question is whether it will be too little too late, but there is reason for hope.

Our nation's wars are, of course, hardly reason to get bubbly about the new year, and all three theaters could slide backward in the coming months as well. Still, the last 12 months have moved us in better directions.

Michael O'Hanlon is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, senior author of its war index projects and the author of “The Science of War.”

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