Paving the way for cross-Strait trust

The year 2010 should see expansion of cross-strait exchanges and the nurturing of mutual trust, provided no unrest breaks out in China and challenges the leadership of President Hu Jintao, who pursues a moderate line on Taiwan, analysts said.

“It will be the continuation of the situation of 2009. There will be more exchanges and more contacts, and China will give Taiwan more economic incentives,” professor Lin Chong-pin from Tamkang University told the German Press Agency dpa.

“But the pre-condition is that China's economy remains strong. As long as China's economy keeps growing and no unrest breaks out, there will not be pressure on Hu to use force to achieve Taiwan's reunification with the mainland,” he added.

President Ma Ying-jeou, from the China-friendly Nationalist Party (KMT), won the 2008 presidential polls on a platform of reviving the island's economy and seeking peace with China and in 2009 implemented his policies.

At his inauguration, Ma vowed that there would be “no independence, no reunification and no war,” and proposed a diplomatic truce, meaning Taipei and Beijing should stop poaching each other's diplomatic allies.

China responded by re-starting the cross-strait dialogue first held in 1993, allowed Taiwan to attend the World Health Assembly as an observer, and permitted Taipei to send a former vice president to attend the 2008 and 2009 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summits.

Since then, Taiwan and China have held three rounds of dialogue, signed pacts on opening air, sea, postal and tourism links, and inked a deal on financial cooperation.

The two sides are to hold another round of talks late December to promote closer economic cooperation, and discuss signing an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), which is similar to a free-trade agreement.

China's sweeteners — like allowing 3,000 tourists to Taiwan every day and buying surplus fruit — helped the island's economy, but have caused concern among some Taiwanese.

The strongest opposition comes from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which warns that China is slowly bringing Taiwan into its fold and that the KMT is a co-conspirator in Beijing's plot.

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