Delay of the U.S. housing recovery

“I don't think the housing crisis is over,” Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Economy.com, said in a telephone interview. “I think we're going to see another leg down.”

New home sales may begin to pick up by the start of the so-called “spring selling season,” said Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury homebuilder. Existing house sales may take longer. Residential construction and property sales led the way out of the previous seven recessions going back to 1960, said David Berson, chief economist of PMI Group, the mortgage insurer in Walnut Creek, California.

Mortgage applications for home purchases fell to a 12-year low last week and foreclosures rose to record highs in the third quarter, according to reports from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

An index measuring November homebuilder confidence came in lower than the median forecast of 45 economists this week. The Commerce Department on Nov. 18 said residential building dropped 11 percent in October to the lowest level since April's all-time bottom.

'Challenging' Conditions

“Market conditions in the homebuilding industry are still challenging, characterized by rising foreclosures, high inventory levels of available homes, increasing unemployment, tight credit for homebuyers and weak consumer confidence,” said Donald R. Horton, chairman of D.R. Horton Inc., the nation's second-largest homebuilder. The company today reported a fourth-quarter loss of US$231.9 million on US$1 billion in sales, missing analysts' estimates.

The US$8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers, extended by President Barack Obama on Nov. 6, drove existing home sales to a two-year high in September. At the same time, a 26-year high in unemployment is keeping many buyers out of the market and pushing existing owners into foreclosure.

U.S. companies have shed 7.3 million jobs since December 2007, the biggest contraction since the Great Depression, and the unemployment rate jumped to 10.2 percent in October, the highest since 1983, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The jobless rate probably will peak at 10.4 percent in 2010's first quarter, even as the U.S. economy continues an expansion that began in the third quarter, said Douglas Duncan, chief economist of Fannie Mae, the largest mortgage financier.

Loan Delinquencies

“You don't pay a mortgage with economic output — you pay a mortgage with a paycheck,” Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist, said yesterday.

The share of all types of home loans with one or more payments overdue climbed to a record seasonally adjusted 9.64 percent in the third quarter, the Washington-based trade group said in a report yesterday.

The Standard & Poor's Supercom posite Homebuilding Index of 12 companies tumbled almost 5 percent in the six days through yesterday as negative housing data crushed hopes of a recovery.

There are signs that parts of the U.S. are rebounding. California, among the states where the housing bust started, is one of the few areas that's beginning to recover.

October home prices in Orange County, San Diego and the San Francisco Bay Area increased from a year earlier, MDA DataQuick, a San Diego property information service, said this week. The number of sales also increased in the Bay Area and Southern California.

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