A cool optimism for Mideast peace

First, the belligerent Shiite Muslim theocracy in Iran has become not only an open threat to Israel but a subtle and growing worry for some of the Jewish state's Sunni Arab neighbors. There's a common enemy among interested parties.

Perhaps as important, there is a largely new cast of characters at these talks.

Israel's leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been a hard-liner, arguing that Israel cannot maintain its security under any agreement the Palestinians would accept. But as a hard-liner — much as President Richard Nixon was a bone-deep anti-communist when he made the U.S. opening to China four decades ago — Netanyahu may have the credibility among the Israeli right to make a deal.

For his part, Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, is in a politically life-threatening struggle to sustain his power against the radical Hamas faction. Hamas won elections and kicked Abbas' moderate Fatah organization out of the Gaza Strip, engendering a vast schism among Palestinians. Winning guaranteed statehood for the Palestinians — if the deal is right — could hand Abbas a major political victory.

Beyond that, President Barack Obama — he made the latest talks a virtual command performance — has invested major political capital. He barely knew his way around the White House in early 2009 when he said Middle East peace was a top priority. In his very first days in office, Obama appointed George Mitchell to serve as his man in the Middle East. Mitchell carries enormous credibility as a negotiator, having played a key role in bringing Protestants and Catholics into a power-sharing agreement in Northern Ireland.

However, Israeli-Palestinian proximity talks — with Mitchell shuttling between the sides — went nowhere this summer. In the midst of a hugely difficult economic and political season at home, Obama needs some good news. Even movement toward Israeli-Palestinian peace would serve him well.

None of that, of course, guarantees success for this outing, which calls for an agreement within one year.

Even the White House and State Department are keeping expectations low out of historical prudence.

Stretching back 19 years, the search for peace has lurched across the globe with locations that recall the hopes and frustrations of previous efforts — Madrid, Oslo, Washington, Maryland, Sharm el-Sheik, Egypt, and others.

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