How Russia uses ambiguity to thrive as a global power

Russia has agreed to sell Tehran sophisticated missile defense technology, but has so far declined to deliver those weapons -- without giving up the right at some point to do so.

By holding out the hope of sanctions to the U.S., Russia has won a lot of good will in Washington.

By keeping alive the possibility of missile sales and continuing opposition to sanctions, it insures it has friends in Tehran.

By delivering on neither, Russia has irked both would-be allies. But so far it has preserved its influence in a region where, otherwise, it might have little. Or none.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to make incremental progress, it seems, on its own foreign policy goals, including expanding its control of Europe's energy markets and limiting the influence of NATO on its borders.

Some U.S. officials suspect the mixed messages coming from Moscow are the product of a lack of coordination at the top. Others see them as mostly reflecting debate and disagreements within the Russian government, perhaps the result of rival factions that surround Putin and Medvedev.

Both may play some role. But Russia has been tacking like a sailboat, shifting from position to position to make the most of the prevailing winds, since Putin came to power in 1999.

Russia's maneuvering has become even more intense since Putin, after two terms as president, engineered Medvedev's election and became prime minister in 2008, in effect giving the country two leaders.

Today, Medvedev is often seen as the champion of Western hopes for reform and closer cooperation with leading democracies, while Putin typically plays the heavy.

When Clinton was in Moscow, she met with Medvedev. But Putin, the political heavyweight, was in China.

“I would have enjoyed meeting with Prime Minister Putin, certainly had intended to, but our schedules didn't work out,” Clinton said Wednesday on Ekho Moskvy radio.

So, it seems, it was up to Lavrov to play the bad cop role.

As in the case of Iran and the U.S., the result is that Russia's negotiating partners are whipsawed between their hopes and fears, uncertain about where exactly Russia stands — and perhaps ready to make concessions in order to test the waters and appeal to Russia's better nature.

So are Medvedev and Putin rivals battling for the soul of Russia? Or are they silent partners, each playing his role in a grand strategy? Or is the relationship more complex?

No one outside the Russian government knows for certain.

“This is a non-transparent system,” said Masha Lipman of the Moscow Carnegie Center think tank. “We don't know how decisions are taken.”

Whatever the reason behind Russia's seeming split personality, Moscow has in the last decade put itself in the center of some of the major foreign policy challenges facing the United States, including Iran, Afghanistan, North Korea and arms control. Russia has repeatedly sought concessions in exchange for these services.

And given Moscow's success, there seems to be little likelihood this pattern will change.

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