How Russia uses ambiguity to thrive as a global power

It's how post-Soviet Russia has managed to thrive as a world power, despite a shrinking population, a bloated and inefficient military and an antiquated industrial base.

With its few major assets — energy resources, a seat on the U.N. Security Council and an aging nuclear arsenal — it has parlayed a weak hand into a position of expanding global influence.

Clinton is on a two-day visit to encourage Russia to talk tough on sanctions against Iran if Tehran fails to cooperate on limiting its nuclear program. President Dmitry Medvedev has spoken sympathetically about how sanctions might eventually be needed, saying last month, “in some cases they are inevitable.”

But Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov apparently dimmed U.S. hopes Tuesday. “Threats, sanctions and threats of pressure in the current situation, we are convinced, would be counterproductive,” Lavrov said.

Later, three senior American officials said Medvedev had reaffirmed his earlier support for the U.S. position in a private meeting with Clinton at his home outside Moscow. They said they were baffled by Lavrov's dismissive comment.

By keeping its positions ambiguous -- and its options open until the last possible moment — Russia has achieved so much with so little.

And that could mean either more U.S. concessions, or less of what Washington hoped for, or both.

Meanwhile, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin — by most reckoning Russia's most powerful political leader ­— was in China, where he said Moscow's cooperation with Beijing helps to “restrain” other powers, a not-so-veiled reference to the United States.

Again, he appeared to be playing the angles.

Russia desperately needs investment to find and develop new natural gas fields. But it has not rushed to cut deals: instead, it has carefully calculated how to use its resources to meet both economic and political goals.

While Clinton was in Moscow, Putin was in Beijing to sign a framework multi-billion-dollar energy trade pact. But the details of Tuesday's deal remain to be worked out, and China hasn't agreed to Russia's demand for premium prices for its gas and other resources.

Putin seemed to be suggesting to China's Communist rulers that a high-priced energy deal with Russia could pay political as well as economic benefits. And one of those benefits, it seems, would be a strengthened partnership opposing what Putin has called U.S. global hegemony.

Iran is another good example of how Russia has played a weak hand skillfully.

A nuclear-armed Iran could threaten Moscow. On the other hand, Russian support for sanctions might sour important trade deals, especially in armaments and nuclear technology. Worse, Iran might decide to lend clandestine aid to Muslim separatists in the Russian Caucasus.

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