“We hope that it will go beyond statements and translate into action,” Salome Samadashvili, Georgia’s ambassador to the EU, said of the summit. “We should stop self-indulgent, wishful thinking that Russia is moving the right direction.”

Georgia also wants the EU to block Russia’s bid to join the World Trade Organization and threaten a boycott of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, the Russian Black Sea resort just a short drive from Georgia’s disputed border.

Given the EU divisions, that’s unlikely.

There will be a strong statement of support for Georgia’s territorial integrity. The EU will probably add to the over euro12 million (US$18 million) it sent in humanitarian aid and offer more money to rebuild infrastructure damaged by the fighting.

The 27 member nations could offer to send more monitors, or even armed peacekeepers further down the line — but only if Russia drops its long-standing objections to an international force.

As for longer term EU relations with Russia, expect much concern, regret and declarations that “business cannot go on as usual,” but few concrete moves to suggest the Union will take action to force Russia’s hand.

“Russia knows that when it comes to conducting a serious foreign and security policy, Europe is all mouth,” says Lord Chris Patten, a veteran British politician who was the EU’s external relations commissioner from 1999-2004.

“I doubt whether anything tougher than strongly worded communiques will ever be employed,” he wrote in a recent syndicated article.

Europe does have some economic leverage with Russia. With over 60 percent of its oil and gas exports going to the EU, Russia’s economy needs petro-euros as much as Europe’s depends on its energy. Russia also wants Western technology and investment to develop other sectors of its economy.

However, it could take years to wean Europe off Russian energy and the immediate impact of cutting oil and gas supplies would be catastrophic for European industry and households.

Instead of seeking to punish Moscow, some diplomats and analysts say the best response would be to reach out to the EU’s eastern neighbors to preempt further Russian efforts to extend a grip over the former Soviet sphere.

That could include offering Ukraine a prospect of EU membership, help to ending Moldova’s stand off with its own Moscow-backed separatists, or offering Georgians trade and visa advantages so they can travel at least as freely as the Russian passport holders in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

“Ultimately the most effective answer is strengthening the EU’s links with those countries,” says Tomas Valasek, foreign policy director at the Center for European Reform, a London-based think tank.

“The EU response should not focus on Russia. We are not going to get anywhere by threatening Russia and it’s probably going to divide Europe anyway if we try.”

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