U.S. arms deal is only a deterrent

“A credible case can be made that the air war for Taiwan could essentially be over before the (Taiwan and U.S.) air forces have even fired a shot,” Rand said. In raw numbers, China has 2.3 million soldiers against about roughly 280,000 personnel on active service in Taiwan, and more than 1,000 missiles pointed at the island's exposed infrastructure.

Chinese military spending jumped 15 percent to US$69 billion in 2009, the latest in more than a decade-long string of double-digit increases, dwarfing Taiwan's military budget last year of about US$10 billion.

“Even if Taiwan were to acquire an aircraft carrier or produce nuclear bombs, it wouldn't change the situation very much,” said Alexander Huang, a political scientist at Taipei's Tamkang University.

But a simple comparison of the competing military strengths does not reflect the wider geo-political situation.

“I don't think the arms package will change the balance. It's much more symbolic,” said Bruce Jacobs, an expert on the relationship between China and Taiwan at Australia's Monash University.

“The U.S. would be involved in a conflict. Unofficially, Australia would be involved, for example with intelligence gathering. Japan would be involved if China does invade. It wouldn't just be China and Taiwan.”

In case of war, the U.S. would be forced by its own past promises — and by public opinion — to come to the defense of Taiwan, meaning conflict could rapidly engulf the region, analysts said.

“On the part of the U.S., the commitment is obviously there, and I think China also understands that the U.S. would probably intervene, and it would be too costly for China,” said Joseph Cheng, a China watcher at City University of Hong Kong.

“China has no intention of engaging in war with U.S.

“Attacking Taiwan militarily is almost unthinkable.”

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