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U.S. arms deal is only a deterrent

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- A multi-billion dollar United States weapons shipment to Taiwan will not threaten China's overwhelming military superiority, but could make any invasion or attack prohibitively costly for Beijing, analysts say.

Under a deal that has further rattled China-U.S. ties, the Pentagon last week unveiled a US$6.4 billion arms package for Taiwan including Patriot missiles, Black Hawk helicopters and mine-hunting ships.

Washington argued that the weapons would help preserve a balance of power in the Taiwan Strait as Beijing — which claims the island as its own — ramps up military spending.

“These weapons of course can help beef up Taiwan's defense capabilities to some extent,” said Tyson Fu, the former head of the Institute of Strategic Studies under Taiwan's National Defense University.

“They may generate additional difficulties and costs for the People's Liberation Army, should it invade Taiwan. That's why Beijing has been reacting so strongly against the arms package.”

Ties between China and Taiwan have improved markedly since Beijing-friendly Ma Ying-jeou became the island's president in 2008, and war may seem a remote possibility.

But China's leaders have never renounced using force to take back the island which has ruled itself since a civil war ended in 1949, even though any conflict would almost certainly suck in U.S. forces to defend Taiwan.

A report by American think tank, Rand Corp, published late last year concluded that a skillful Taiwanese defense could throw a Chinese invasion force back into the sea.

“If properly prepared for and executed, (a robust and layered defense) could still turn any Chinese invasion attempt into a bloody fiasco,” said the report, “A Question of Balance”.

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