Hong Kong 'referendum' sets China on edge

“The Chinese Communist Party regards itself as the ultimate decision maker for its people,” said Ma Ngok, a political scientist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

“It will never accept the idea of allowing a small group of people on its territory making decisions for themselves. The referendum plan is almost like a separatist movement to them,” he said.

Beyond a limited exercise at village-level democracy, China has never permitted a political opening to match its three decades of economic reform. The 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown made Beijing's priorities clear.

Political stability and “social harmony” take pride of place, and dissidents are routinely locked up. In late December, writer Liu Xiaobo was jailed for 11 years after co-authoring “Charter 08,” a manifesto for political change.

The pro-democrats do not have to fear Liu's fate in Hong Kong, which under its 1997 transfer from British rule enjoys a separate legal system and freedoms of speech and protest.

But the freewheeling territory's legislature remains heavily skewed in favor of pro-Beijing business interests, and the democrats are stepping up their campaign for one person, one vote as early as 2012.

When the five lawmakers tendered their resignations last week, bidding to turn the resulting by-elections into a referendum for democracy, Civic Party leader Audrey Eu said there was “no reason to fear the people's will”.

“We are going to do it by five pieces of paper, by five resignation letters,” she said.

But political observers say Beijing has much to fear from the symbolism of a fully fledged democracy campaign taking root on a part of its soil.

“Hong Kong has always been looked upon as the best model for those who want to push for democracy in mainland China,” said Johnny Lau, a veteran commentator on China affairs.

“We should never underestimate the implications of the city's democratic movement on other parts of China,” he said.

“Civic groups have already emerged in China. However, their actions have not yet been able to effect changes because wealth is still concentrated in the pockets of top bureaucrats.”

Pro-Beijing parties are vowing to boycott the forthcoming by-elections, and China's cabinet has condemned the democrats' campaign as a “blatant challenge” to the city's constitutional set-up under mainland rule.

There are other signs that people in Hong Kong are chafing at Beijing's stewardship.

Last month, more than 1,000 protesters blocked officials from leaving the Legislative Council and rallied outside the residence of Chief Executive, Donald Tsang, against an 8.6-billion-dollar Hong Kong-Guangzhou railway link.

Protesters said the legislature's approval of the high-speed project, a mainland priority that was rammed through by the pro-Beijing business elites, trampled over popular objections.

On New Year's Day, thousands took to the streets to call for universal suffrage and for Liu Xiaobo's release.

City University political scientist, James Sung, said he expected more intervention from China, albeit indirectly through pressure on Tsang's Hong Kong administration and the pro-Beijing parties.

“Beijing is definitely worried about the 'referendum.' It will take an increasingly closer watch of the city's political development and will continue to intervene,” he said.

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