China could bend on Iran nuclear sanctions: experts

Of the six major world powers working to defuse the standoff with Tehran, Beijing and Moscow have so far formed a united front, rejecting sanctions and pushing for further negotiations despite intensifying pressure from Washington.

Their commercial interests could be a factor in their decision-making, experts say — China and Russia are the two countries with the biggest stakes in Iran's natural gas sector.

Iran also is the number three source of crude oil for energy-hungry China, and trade between the two countries has exploded in recent years, amounting to US$28 billion in 2008, according to official figures.

While U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton unsuccessfully tried to persuade Russia to support new sanctions against the Islamic republic during a visit to Moscow last week, one of her deputies was here trying to win Beijing's support.

“If we are to make real progress on sending a consolidated message to Iran, we are going to need the support of China,” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell told reporters.

Xu Tiebing, a professor of international relations at Communication University of China, said Beijing would not support new sanctions “as long as there is not sufficient evidence showing that Iran is using its technology to develop weapons.”

But, despite its protestations, China has supported three previous U.N. Security Council resolutions on Iran's contested atomic program.

And experts say it could further soften its position, even though nearly 14 percent of China's oil imports come from Iran and several Chinese firms are in line to secure lucrative gas contracts there, notably in the South Pars field.

Iran's vice oil minister Hossein Noqrehkar-Shirazi has said Chinese firms are ready to invest US$48-50 billion in oil and gas ventures, but Beijing has not signed any major contracts yet.

“The Chinese do not understand what the Iranians want to do,” said Michal Meidan, a researcher at the Paris-based Asia Centre.

“They are not going to pour money into the country before seeing what happens with the sanctions,” she said, adding that Beijing would be hard-pressed to vote against U.N. sanctions and calling a veto “unthinkable.”

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