Pakistan faces black hole in Waziristan

The military says the operation will be limited to strongholds of Baitullah Mehsud, the warlord killed by a U.S. missile who turned Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) into the most active killers of security personnel and civilians in Pakistan.

“The Taliban will fight a guerrilla war. The military should put the emphasis on capturing the command structure or destroying it, otherwise they will make a network again,” said Masood Sharif, former chief of Pakistan's Intelligence Bureau.

The TTP is thought by the military to have 10,000 to 12,000 fighters in South Waziristan. Experts say a successful operation should have been preceded by harder bargaining to divide and rule among Pakistan's Pashtun tribesmen.

The doughty tribesmen are veterans of every major campaign in the region, including the legendary 1980s Afghan war against the Soviet Union.

“An operation against a guerrilla-type Taliban force should be selective and intelligence-based. Political work in the area and winning the confidence of tribesmen is also required,” said Yusufzai.

The second largest tribe dominant near the Afghan border, the Wazirs, have an agreement to remain technically neutral. But only a small faction of the larger Mehsud tribe has signed a peace agreement with Pakistan's government.

Government officials in the northwest say deals have been struck with a limited number of elders in South Waziristan and with leaders in neighboring North Waziristan to remain impartial in case of a ground offensive. But numerous operations in northwest Pakistan have met with limited success, costing the lives of 2,000 troops since 2002.

Waziristan offensives in 2004 and 2005 ended with peace agreements that critics said gave militants breathing space to re-arm.

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