Pakistan faces black hole in Waziristan

Riding on a wave of popular support after a relatively successful operation against the Taliban in the picturesque Swat Valley, commanders have spent months drawing up battle plans to take on Waziristan. But South Waziristan will be a far tougher nut to crack given its fiery warrior culture — its tribesmen famously resisted the British in the 19th century — and its mountainous terrain of goat tracks, caves and thick forest.

“War in Waziristan will not be a simple one, it will be more difficult than Swat,” Rahimullah Yusufzai, a tribal affairs expert, told AFP.

“Waziristan is like a black hole. Troops already suffer from a lack of intelligence. Even the army describes Waziristan as an intelligence black hole,” he said.

South Waziristan is part of Pakistan's lawless northwest tribal belt where US officials believe al-Qaida leaders, including Osama bin Laden, fled with thousands of Taliban diehards after the 2001 U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan.

The enemy is battle-hardened and well-trained. The military lacks vital air assets and sophisticated counter-insurgency expertise. Central Asian fighters, Arabs and north Africans are among those hunkered down in Waziristan.

There is no border demarcation, allowing militants to escape into neighboring Afghanistan or vanish in a district bigger than Lebanon whose 600,000 population is dominated by the Mehsud and Wazir tribes. The heavy snowfalls of winter looming in the next two months pose another constraint on the army, with commanders outlining a window of just six to eight weeks to complete the operation.

Pakistan's weak civilian government promised a big offensive months ago. U.S. and domestic pressure on the military to act has intensified after a blizzard of militant assaults that have left more than 170 people dead this month.

But a rushed military operation in response to the embarrassing militant attacks, which exposed grave security lapses, may be counter-productive.

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