U.S. troop pullback is test for a new U.S.-Iraq relationship

“This is an evolutionary process and not a radical one,” O'Hanlon told AFP.

Noah Feldman, a Harvard University professor who once served as a U.S. adviser in Iraq, said the pullback still represents the biggest test yet for coalition-trained Iraqi security forces.

“If the pattern of those insurgents who are still out there remains consistent, we'll see some tests after U.S. troops pull back,” said Feldman who warned of the risk of both Sunni and Shiite militant violence.

He told AFP that the Iraqi government could appeal for U.S. forces to intervene even if it carries a “short-term political cost” in a country yearning for peace and an end to the U.S.-led occupation.

“It's also a test of whether the Iraqi political situation has stabilized,” he added.

A senior U.S. defense official, who asked not to be named, acknowledged fears in Washington and in the region “that as we draw down, that the vacuum will be filled by Iran.”

But he said such concern is overblown.

The government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, he said, showed its independence from Shiite but non-Arab Iran last year in both negotiating the SOFA deal with Washington and in crushing Iranian-backed militias in Basra.

O'Hanlon and Feldman agreed that Iraq shows signs of nationalism, and Feldman said Iran has no interest in sparking a civil war that could spill over the border.

In the long run, Feldman suggested, Iraq could become a relatively secular democratic “model” for Iran, which has been gripped by mass protests against the ruling clerics over contested presidential election results.

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