U.S. suggestions to expand the six-party forum, all of whose members are in the ARF, to include other ARF countries as well such as Australia are also viewed with suspicion by some in ASEAN. “Any bid to undermine ASEAN would be dangerous, considering its role so far as a bulwark against aggression by big powers,” said one ASEAN official.

But U.S. experts said ASEAN has nothing to fear. “The Northeast Asian security mechanism may be perceived by some Southeast Asian officials or scholars as undermining the ARF but the reality is that in Asia today, there are multiple levels of multilateralism and it’s not unhealthy if there is a certain amount of competition,” said Michael Green, a former top Asian affairs official in the White House.

In an indication that the Northeast Asian mechanism will continue to be pursued by the successor of President George W. Bush, who has only nine months left in the White House, Green said all three prospective presidential candidates — Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain — were in favor of the plan. “None of them are opposed to it although they may have different views on the (North Korean) nuclear issue,” he said.

Green also cited “obvious” differences between the 27-nation ARF and the Northeast Asian mechanism, which is expected to be much smaller. “The ARF has some useful roles but it cannot resolve conflicts or build confidence building measures that truly affect security policy,” he said.

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