Analyst Kanwal said India should use the lull in violence to push for a settlement and try to motivate Kashmiri separatists to “join the political mainstream and participate in state elections” later in 2008.

“There is a hope on the horizon in Kashmir, and losing this opportunity may prove to be an insurmountable setback,” he said.

The desire for progress is echoed on the streets of Srinagar, Indian Kashmir’s summer capital and the urban hub of the revolt.

“Everyone is loving this peace. We pray it stays like this forever,” said shopkeeper Tanveer Masudi, 45. “People are tired of violence. They want a political resolution.”

Despite the improved situation, prominent Kashmiri separatist Shabir Shah cautioned that any calm should not be taken by India as a sign the revolt was fizzling out.

“People are tired, but their desire for freedom remains deep-rooted,” he said, calling on New Delhi to at least acknowledge Kashmir is “disputed” and start a “serious dialogue” on the roots of the conflict.

“There has to be a political solution,” said Shah.

Ajai Sahni, the head of the New Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management, also said that the problem had not gone away — with militants becoming more active on the political front.

“It’s also a cheaper operation — and one that can create far more psychological and moral pressure on India,” he said.

Indian officials and members of the massive security contingent in Kashmir, however, argue that now is not the time to soften their view that Muslim-majority Kashmir is, and always will be, an integral part of India.

“Despite a sharp decline in violence, the situation does not leave any scope for complacency,” Kashmir’s Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad said recently, signalling no reduction in India’s huge troop presence that is resented by local people.

In the Indian security establishment, Kashmir is also still discussed within the parameters of victory or defeat, and the main question is how long before troubled neighbor Pakistan gets back up to its old alleged tricks again.

Indian “supercop” Kanwar Pal Singh Gill — famed for crushing a Sikh revolt that rocked Punjab in the 1980s and early 1990s — has called for the Indian army to try to finish off the militants once and for all.

“Our opinion is that the fall in the terrorist violence is largely due to the serious winter in Kashmir,” said Gill, an influential figure who runs a security think tank.

“I think whenever the advantage is with us, we should strike back before they attempt to regroup.”

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