At the height of the Muslim insurgency against Indian rule over a part of the picturesque Himalayan region, scores of militants would sneak in from Pakistan, bringing daily gun battles, bombings and suicide strikes.

Eighteen years after the revolt broke out, Indian Kashmir is counting its dead — over 43,000, more than a third of them civilians — but also wondering why the flood of fighters has turned into a trickle, and whether or not a period of relative calm will last.

In 2007, 1,092 violent incidents by militants were reported, compared with 3,830 in 2001, according to official figures.

For Indian analysts, the cynical view is that any peace in Kashmir is merely a result of Islamabad being otherwise occupied.

“The Pakistan army and Inter-Services Intelligence have apparently ordered a tactical freeze,” said Gurmeet Kanwal, director of the New Delhi-based Center for Land Warfare Studies.

Pakistan, he argued, is currently “unable to fight simultaneously on three fronts — a proxy war against India, the al-Qaida-Taliban combine in its North West Frontier Province and vicious internal instability.”

Writing for the hawkish South Asia Intelligence Review, analyst Kanchan Lakshman also said the “Pakistan-backed Islamist groups” have merely adopted “a wider subversive agenda.”

“A decrease in terrorist violence in Kashmir in 2007 has been paralleled by a shift in the Pakistan-backed Islamist terrorists’ focus to the Indian heartland,” he wrote, signalling India was still deeply suspicious of its fellow nuclear-armed neighbor.

India has long accused Pakistan of arming and funding Kashmiri Muslim rebels, a charge Islamabad publicly denies.

Some commentators, however, insist that Pakistan should be given some credit for acting in good faith since a peace process with India began in 2004.

“Pakistan has apparently made it clear to the militants that violence will not be tolerated during the peace process,” said Tahir Mohiudin, editor of the leading Kashmiri weekly newspaper Chattan.

“There has been a clear shift in Pakistan’s policy.”

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