Pollsters meanwhile say the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, which backed him in his last term in office, is trailing in third place behind Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party and the party of former premier Nawaz Sharif.

A low turnout — helped by fears of suicide bombings like one that killed at least 46 people at an election rally Saturday — combined with Pakistan’s feudalized political system could still help the PML-Q cross the line.

But if they win, Musharraf will still be in trouble, said Hasan Askari, a political analyst who is currently teaching at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C.

“If there is a perception that his government has stolen the election, the opposition is expected to challenge him in the streets,” Askari told AFP.

“In case the opposition gets enough seats to set up the government, it is expected to restrict Musharraf’s powers and, if possible, remove him altogether.”

Musharraf has one card up his sleeve because, as president, he has the power to dissolve parliament if it becomes troublesome.

Soothing noises from Bhutto’s widower, Asif Ali Zardari, have led to widespread speculation that he could work together with Musharraf in a possible coalition.

But Musharraf would have to compromise with any hostile parliament to preserve his position, weakening his already shaky position, analysts said.

“One thing is very clear — even if Musharraf can survive he will be marginalized. It will be a gradual removal from the scene, if not immediately,” said Rasul Baksh Rais, a political scientist at Lahore University of Management Sciences.

“He will be head of the state but he would not be calling the shots. And he may not be controlling the security forces, they will be under the prime minister.”

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