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Updated Monday, March 3, 2008 0:00 am TWN, By Mark Bendeich and Niki Koswanage, Reuters

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Malaysia government’s silent election fear is voter apathy

KUALA LUMPUR -- Malaysia’s ruling coalition is braced for a possible protest vote at elections next weekend, but the word on the street is that apathy may be the real threat.

Campaigning for the March 8 polls has so far focused on clear signs of discontent in the minority ethnic Indian and Chinese communities with the coalition’s policies on race and religion.

The coalition, which has governed for five decades, needs its core supporters in the ethnic Malay majority to turn out in force to counter such a backlash, but senior insiders worry that many Malays may stay at home instead.

“I’m concerned that even those who have registered to vote seem doubtful whether they would go out to vote,” former deputy premier Musa Hitam said in an interview in the New Sunday Times.

“Some are not happy with the government, yet don’t feel they should come out and vote against the government. Some say they are simply fed up with politics...and some are saying ‘Well, whether we vote or not, they are going to win for sure.’”

Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi insists the Malays will turn out to vote, and the pro-government Sunday Star newspaper carried a survey on Sunday predicting a record turnout, but voter apathy remains a concern among the ruling elite.

Even though Abdullah’s re-election seems assured — thanks to a weak and divided opposition — a large protest vote, compounded by a failure to rally his own core supporters, could threaten his continued leadership, political experts say.

“Basically the enthusiasm has gone,” said pollster Ibrahim Suffian, of local market-research firm the Merdeka Center. He said apathy was a particular risk among Malay voters, who form the bedrock of support for the Barisan Nasional coalition.

“It (apathy) would depress the incumbent’s vote and inflate the opposition’s vote,” Ibrahim said.

Barisan has set a target of retaining at least two thirds of seats in federal parliament, the level required to change the constitution. The last time it failed to achieve that, in 1969, race riots erupted and a state of emergency ensued until 1971.

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