Hong Kong democrats buoyant ahead of July 1 rally

Armed with a list of complaints against the government, the marchers will parade through the streets on the anniversary of the territory's handover from colonial power Britain to China.

The protest has become an annual opportunity for campaigners — most notably the pro-democracy movement — to show the strength of opposition to both Beijing and the local authorities.

Democrats approach the latest march in fine fettle, after a record 150,000 turnout at the candlelight vigil earlier this month to mark the 20th anniversary of the bloody crackdown on protests in Tiananmen Square.

But while the marchers' list of complaints is long — ranging from the slow pace of constitutional reform to civil service pay freezes — there has been concern the focus of the demonstration could get muddled.

“While most people expect a huge turnout, the message of the marchers is quite diverse,” said Ray Yep, an associate professor at City University.

“You do not see a clear message and you have seen in recent days that the democrats have been trying to re-focus the message back on democracy.”

Estimates as to how may people will hit the streets on the public holiday vary. Organizers have said they are planning for a minimum of 50,000, while some campaigners hope for a repeat of the 500,000 turnout in 2003.

That year the movement was galvanized by an economic downturn, an unpopular chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa, and controversy over the introduction of a proposed national security bill.

The unexpected show of people power saw the security legislation shelved and was a key factor in Tung resigning the following year.

But in the intervening years, a stronger economy and a more popular administration has helped to undermine the democrats, and last year's attendance was down to fewer than 20,000, independent monitors said.

This year, the pro-democracy camp, which acts as the main opposition in Hong Kong, believes the combination of economic uncertainty and general frustration makes the administration, led by chief executive Donald Tsang, more vulnerable.

The global economic crisis has hit the financial and export hub hard. The city fell into recession in the third quarter of 2008 and the government expects the economy to contract 5.5-6.5 percent in 2009.

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