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December, 4, 2016

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OECD predicts growth to continue in China and move higher in the US

China's economy will grow at 6.7 percent this year, but will edge down to 6.4 percent and 6.1 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively, the Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on Monday in its latest Economic Outlook, which is published twice each year.

Its three-year predictions are roughly consistent with the Chinese government's goal of achieving an average annual rate of 6.5 percent during the 2016-20 period to realize its target of doubling the per capita income by 2020 from a 2010 base, although the OECD said China needs to arrest the downward trend in 2019 and 2020 if it is to reach that goal.

Leading Chinese policy insiders said the OECD predictions for the three years were reasonable as growth fluctuations were normal and acceptable in the process of restructuring the economy and China "enjoys more advantages than disadvantages" in keeping its annual economic growth rate at 6 to 7 percent in the 2016-20 period, as long as the economies of the United States, Japan and the EU also offer growth momentum.

The OECD said the US economy is going to pick up, due to an assumed easing of fiscal policy, with the economy projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2017 and 3 percent in 2018. The euro area is predicted to grow 1.6 percent in 2017 and 1.7 percent in 2018. Japanese growth is projected at 1 percent in 2017 and 0.8 percent in 2018.

The report says that the total growth of the 35 OECD countries is projected to be 2 percent in 2017 and 2.3 percent in 2018. India's growth rates are expected to hover above 7.5 percent over the 2017-18 period, but many emerging market economies will continue to grow at a more sluggish pace.

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