Tokyo may seek entry into Trans-Pacific talks: analysts

“I think he will go to APEC and announce to the president that he's in,” Michael Green, a former White House official and lead scholar on Japan at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told reporters.

U.S. President Barack Obama is hosting the annual summit meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum later this month in Honolulu.

The nine countries negotiating the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership pact — the United States, Chile, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand and Brunei — are all members of APEC.

Japan, the world's third-largest national economy behind the United States and China, has been toying with the idea of joining the talks for a while.

It had been expected to announce a decision in June, but that timetable slipped after the severe earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster that hit the country in March.

The latest sign of Tokyo's interest in joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks was a Japanese government announcement on Tuesday that it is reviewing certain restrictions on imports of U.S. beef imposed after several cases of mad cow disease were found in the U.S. cattle herd in the early 2000s.

The United States insists its beef is safe and has made loosening of beef import restrictions a precondition for free trade agreements with a number of countries.

Japan's Farm Lobby

Noda and other key Japanese government ministers appear keen to join talks on the Trans-Pacific Partnership but many in his Democratic Party of Japan fear angering the powerful farm lobby, which wants to preserve the high tariffs that keep many small-scale part-time producers in business.

Green acknowledged many of Japan's farmers are strongly opposed to the pact, but said a broad cross-section of Japanese business groups favor joining the talks which Washington hopes to conclude in the coming year.

Fred Bergsten, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Reuters he also expected Noda to declare Japan's interest in joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

“They've got to find some strategy to boost productivity and get their economy out of the doldrums,” Bergsten said.

U.S. approval of a free trade pact with South Korea has also put pressure on Tokyo to join, he said.

However, there likely would be some “pre-negotiation haggling” before the United States and other countries involved make a formal decision to let Tokyo in, Bergsten said.

While Japan's participation would greatly increase the economic benefits of the pact for U.S. companies, there also is concern it could slow down the talks.

Last week, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk emphasized Washington wanted to quickly wrap up the negotiations and not have them drag on like the Doha round of world trade talks which has already lasted nearly 10 years. “I think a lot of U.S. trade negotiators remember what it was like negotiating with Japan in the 80s and 90s. It was real World War I trench warfare and they're worried about getting into this with Japan again,” Green said.

However, Japanese business badly wants to be better integrated into the Asia-Pacific economy, so talks might not take as long as some fear, Green said.

Bergsten said for both foreign policy and economic reasons it was worth having Japan in the Trans-Pacific Partnership even if it slows down negotiations by a year.

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