India hikes key interest rates more than expected

The Reserve Bank of India hiked the repo rate — at which the central bank makes short-term loans to commercial banks — by a quarter percentage point to 5.75 percent. It raised the reverse repo rate — the rate at which it borrows from commercial banks — by an unexpected half percentage point to 4.5 percent.

Economists had expected quarter point hikes in both rates. The bank left the cash reserve ratio unchanged at 6.0 percent, as expected.

The bank says economic growth for the year through March 2011 will be 8.5 percent, higher than its April forecast of 8.0 percent, thanks to better than expected industrial production, despite resurgent concerns about the health of the global economy.

It raised its inflation forecast for March 2011 from 5.5 percent to 6.0 percent.

“The dominant concern that has shaped the monetary policy stance in this review is high inflation,” Governor D. Subbarao said in his policy statement. “With growth taking firm hold, the balance of policy stance has to shift decisively to containing inflation.”

Headline inflation, which hit 10.6 percent in June — a number that may well be revised upward — has been in the double digits since February. High prices have become a political issue, with opposition parties staging protests, and policymakers keen to check rising prices.

The bank said nonfood items contributed over 70 percent to headline inflation in June. “Inflation is now very much generalized,” the bank said in its policy statement. “Inflation is now being significantly driven by demand side factors,” it said.

Last year's drought pushed food prices up precipitously. This year the monsoon rains, which crash across India from June to September, are 14 percent below normal. Government meteorologists are predicting that overall rains will be normal, and the central bank said crop area has increased from last year, promising bigger harvests and lower food prices.

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