2009 GDP forecast at 0.53% if no stimulus: DGBAS

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Taiwan’s economy could grow only 0.53 percent in 2009 if no economic stimulus measures were to be introduced, the Cabinet-level Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) predicted Friday. And if Taiwan does not receive any visitors from China, the country’s gross domestic product would record zero growth next year, according to the DGBAS.

But with an expected increase in Chinese tourists and government economic stimulus measures, next year’s GDP is forecast to grow by 2.12 percent, the DGBAS said. The measures include the recently announced plan to stimulate consumer spending by giving every Taiwanese citizen a little more than US$100 - totalling almost US$2.5 billion.

Several public construction projects, dangerous bridge reinforcing projects, urban renewal plans and investment promotion measures will also together contribute 1.59 percentage points to next year’s GDP growth.

GDP growth in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2009 are forecast to reach 1.05 percent, 3.79 percent and 3.90 percent, respectively, according to the DGBAS.

The number of Chinese tourists coming to Taiwan is expected to reach 3,000 per day by next year, the DGBAS said. Up to last month, an average of less than 300 mainland tourists visited Taiwan each day.

But an expansion in direct flight services between Taiwan and China is expected to encourage more Chinese to travel here.

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