Growth for rest of 2009 to be positive: CEPD

CEPD made its prediction based on estimates given by various government agencies and research institutes, it said.

Economies throughout the world will reach a bottom in the second half, CEPD said, citing data by various international organizations.

The global economy, as a whole, will contract by between 2.9 percent and 2.2 percent this year, CEPD said, citing data.

Taiwan's economy will recover after a recovery in the United States and China, it said.

Based on data by research institutes and the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), Taiwan's economy is estimated to contract by between 9.37 percent and 3.36 percent in the first half, CEPD said.

The second half, however, will be a different story as a recovery slowly takes place, it said.

Taiwan's GDP is expected to grow anywhere between 0.15 and 3.72 percent in the second half, CEPD said, adding for the year, Taiwan's economic growth will be between -4.6 percent and 0.11 percent.

“Taiwan's economy may stabilize in the bottom half,” CEPD said. “However, there are also uncertainties that may affect the economy. These uncertainties including rising oil prices, which may increase import prices. Also, we don't know if the swine flu virus will make a comeback in the autumn or winter season. If so, it may add to further economic woes.” The statistics bureau announced in May Taiwan's economy shrank an unprecedented 10.24 percent in the first quarter as exports fell and businesses cut spending.

The drop followed the fourth quarter's revised 8.61 percent contraction from a year earlier and was the biggest slump since official records began in 1952, the DGBAS said.

The government forecasted gross domestic product will decline in the second and third quarters before expanding 5.2 percent in the final three months of the year. The DGBAS will give its official second quarter growth figures as well as revised forecasts for the year on Aug. 24.

Subscribe to The China Post and save 25%. Click here

SharePrintEmail

Write a Comment

Terms

Enter your comments - 3000 characters max

Type in image code

Submit

 Receive China Post promos
 Respond to this email