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Taiwan GDP growth to exceed 3% in 2014: DGBAS

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS, 主計處) yesterday upwardly adjusted its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast, stating that the nation's economy is poised to expand at a pace exceeding 3 percent, with chances to hit 3.2 percent.

The DGBAS earlier gauged economic growth over the first five months of this year at 2.98 percent, falling short of the 3 percent expected. Propelled by the improvements achieved during the first quarter's 3.14-percent and the second quarter's 3.84-percent GPD growth, the highest in the past six consecutive quarters, Taiwan's economic growth in the past six months exceeded previous expectations by 1.05 percent.

Most notably, the DGBAS announced that Taiwan's economic growth is expected to reach 3.62 percent in the third quarter, 3.08 percent in the fourth quarter and 3.51 percent over the course of 2015.

Citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) findings, the DGBAS stated that economies throughout the world have been recovering gradually, propelled by a 4- to 5.3-percent growth in international trade. Among the domestic private sectors, the semiconductor, machinery, automobile and automobile parts industries are most likely to benefit from recovering international demand, and capture strong sales prospects through exports.

In the absence of anomalous turbulence in international markets, Taiwan's economic growth over the course of this year may reach as high as 3.2 percent, the DGBAS said.

Meanwhile, Chou Yu-tien (周雨田), an economist at the Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica (中央院經濟研究所) yesterday provided the most optimistic GDP growth forecast at 3.31 percent, citing the recent stability of economies worldwide. According to Chou, the U.S. market has been exhibiting the strongest recovery momentum.

In addition, under the gradual easing of regulatory limits, the economy of mainland China may see growth as high as 7.5 percent, adding that European economies are expected to maintain positive improvements despite troubles plaguing the Portuguese banking sector, said Hu Sheng-cheng (胡勝正) a economic institute director at the Academic Sinica. Hu stated that Taiwan's GDP growth over this year will be determined by export figures in the second half, the conventional hot season for international trade.

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