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Morgan Stanley raises estimates for Q4 notebook growth

TAIPEI -- Global notebook computer shipments are expected to be greater than earlier predicted in the fourth quarter, in light of better-than-expected results in November, according to U.S. brokerage Morgan Stanley.

Notebook shipments from the top five contract makers are now forecast to grow 4 percent from the third quarter to 37.23 million units, an upward revision from Morgan Stanley's prior expectation of 1 percent.

The growth come from increased orders placed to Taiwan's Quanta Computer Inc., Inventec Corp. and Pegatron Corp., the brokerage firm wrote in a note to clients.

Morgan Stanley has raised its notebook shipment growth forecast for Quanta to 8 percent quarter-on-quarter from its previous 3 percent, mainly helped by Apple Inc.'s new MacBook launch and Hewlett-Packard Co.'s market share gains.

The brokerage also lifts its notebook shipment forecasts for Inventec by 4 percentage points, to an increase of 3 percent, to reflect orders placed by HP, and for Pegatron by 3 percentage points to 8 percent due to rising demand for ASUSTek Computer Inc.'s new models.

For the notebook shipment forecast for the first quarter of 2014, however, Morgan Stanley said it expects the top five contract makers to ship 32 million units, a quarterly decline of 14 percent, citing a higher comparison base in the fourth quarter and uncertainty about orders from brand customers.

Meanwhile, British bank Barclays PLC predicted last week that notebook shipments in the October-December quarter will rise 5 percent from the past three months, to 37.5 million units, compared with prior expectations of a 2 percent growth.

The top-tier contract notebook makers are all Taiwanese companies, including Quanta, Compal Electronics Inc., Wistron Corp., Inventec and Pegatron.

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