Majority of public thinks housing prices will keep increasing this year: survey
By John Liu,The China PostTAIPEI, Taiwan -- While 56 percent of the population in the country believe that realty prices will go up in the next 12 months, people are more conservative about housing prices, according to a survey conducted by Yung-ching Realty (永慶房屋).
September 13, 2013, 12:06 am TWN
Yung-ching Realty, the nation's largest real estate agency by number of offices, said that compared with the previous quarter 10-percent less of the population believe housing prices will rise in the next 12 months. In addition, 28 percent of the population believes realty prices will drop in the next year, much higher than the 19 percent who held this opinion last quarter.
Although home buyers have become more conservative in general, more than half of the population is optimistic about the real estate market's future, said Andy Huang (黃舒衛), Yung-ching's research manager. He added that the public is “neutrally optimistic” toward the housing market in the mid- to long-term.
Less Optimism in Short-term
The public is more conservative regarding realty prices in the next three months. Only 42 percent believe prices will go up, a 6-percent drop from the previous quarter. Huang said that the prospects of impending luxury tax amendments and the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan of tapering off quantitative easing contributed to the public's pessimism about housing prices.
Additionally, 49 percent of the population believes now is not the right time to make home purchases, a 14-percent increase from the previous quarter. Yung-ching realtors believe that rising house prices will play a crucial role in determining the willingness of home buyers to enter the market, besides the expected quantitative easing and luxury tax amendments.
Transactions to Climb in the Fourth Quarter
Due to the uncertainties, transactions have obviously decreased in August. However, transactions are expected to climb, as home buyers enter the market near the end of the year, according to Yeh Ling-chi (葉凌棋), Yung-ching Realty housing business general manager. The fourth quarter is traditionally regarded as the boom season for the housing market as married couples purchase new homes, Yeh said.
Since more than half of the population believes that housing prices will go up in the next 12 months, realty prices are not likely to drop. In addition, most people believe prices will rise slightly or stay level in the short term. That is how the realty market will perform in the fourth quarter, Yeh predicted.
Taoyuan's Booming Realty Market
Taoyuan County may have the hottest real estate market. Fifty-four percent of residents in Taoyuan believe housing prices will go up in the next three months, and 75 percent believe housing prices will rise in the next 12 months. These are the highest numbers among Taiwan residents, and they are still climbing, Huang said.
In summary, the real estate is “hot” in Taoyuan, “warm” in Kaohsiung and Pintung areas, and “cool” in North and Central Taiwan, Yung-ching Realty said.
Yung-ching conducted the survey by email. Questionnaires were sent to 200,000 Yung-ching online members by emails, and a total of 734 responses were collected to perform the analysis.