Economists say U.S. retail sales likely fell in Feb.

Purchases dropped 0.2 percent after a 0.5 percent gain the prior month, according to the median estimate of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Commerce Department figures on March 12. Other reports may show the trade gap widened in January and consumers grew more confident this month.

Figures last week showing the U.S. lost fewer jobs in February than anticipated, overcoming the effects of the snowstorms that caused some companies to temporarily close, signals employment is on the verge of accelerating. More hiring and wage increases will be critical in lifting consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy.

“Retail sales likely would have squeaked out a modest gain if not for the severe snowstorms,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. Nonetheless, “consumers will have to spend more freely for the recovery to sustain itself.”

A Labor Department report March 5 showed the economy lost 36,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent for a second month, indicating the labor market is stabilizing.

U.S. President Barack Obama, speaking at a Washington-area energy company, said the job report was “actually better than expected.” Even so, he said the number of unemployed is “more than we should tolerate” and urged Congress to pass a jobs bill to help lower unemployment.

Auto Sales

Auto sales fell last month to an annual pace of 10.4 million vehicles from 10.8 million in January, according to industry data last week. Toyota Motor Corp. sales fell 8.7 percent from a year earlier as it struggled with global recalls that halted demand for some models. Ford Motor Co., overcoming the snowstorms that curbed showroom traffic, beat General Motors Co. in monthly sales for the first time since 1998.

Excluding automobiles, retail sales were probably little changed after a 0.6 percent gain the prior month, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Chain stores turned in a better-than-forecast performance last month, compared with a low point last year, industry figures showed last week. Macy's Inc., Abercrombie & Fitch Co. and Gap Inc. beat analysts' estimates in February as holiday sales and spring collections tempted consumers to go shopping in a month of record snowfalls.

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