Advertising shows signs of renewed vigor

Not all media outlets have rebounded. Many small cable TV channels and Spanish-language television networks are still hurting, according to television executives. Newspapers, magazines and radio stations also continue to struggle.

“In many sectors, the news is still grim,” said Jon Swallen, senior vice president for research at TNS Media Intelligence, which tracks advertising spending. “And there is still a fairly large hole for these companies to dig out of before they get back to the levels they were a few years ago.”

Unexpectedly, online advertising also has taken it on the chin. Many advertisers are not as eager to buy Internet display ads as they were two or three years ago, when companies were steering millions of ad dollars to online sites.

“There is still a big push toward digital and online video, but the Internet display advertising market is challenged,” said Greg Kahn, senior vice president of strategic insights at advertising agency Optimedia. “There is so much clutter in the space, and advertisers have begun to question the effectiveness of those display ads.”

No one knows for sure how next year will shake out. Many advertisers are waiting for the post-Thanksgiving Black Friday and weekend shopping sales totals to be released next week before they make their decisions for the first quarter of 2010. The strength of the November retail sales is viewed as important insight into the psyche of consumers.

“That's when the decisions are going to be made about advertising for the first quarter,” Kahn said.

Some executives worry that the economy might sputter again once the government's stimulus programs wind down, prompting consumers to rein in spending even further, and advertisers along with them.

Television executives, however, in a significant attitude change, say they are cautiously optimistic. CBS, for example, has sold 90 percent of its commercial time for the Super Bowl, which will be broadcast Feb. 7. A year ago, NBC had to claw to find advertisers who were willing to shell out Super Bowl rates of US$2.5 million to US$3 million for a 30-second spot.

What's more, few advertisers have canceled their orders for the first quarter. TNS' Swallen also noted that there has been “a slight uptick” in spending recently by Detroit automakers General Motors and Ford. But, he said, foreign automakers are not spending more than they did last year. And other executives said carmakers were a long way from reclaiming their mantle as leading advertisers.

“It's not going to be a uniform recovery,” Optimedia's Kahn said. “Some industries are picking up while others are decidedly down.”

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