For the online community, Cyber Monday grows up and out

Online retailers for the past decade have counted on the Monday after Thanksgiving to deliver for Web merchants what Black Friday does for brick-and-mortar stores — a turbo boost into the holiday shopping season. Online sales surged on that Monday as many people hopped on to their employers' fast Internet connections to do some holiday shopping when they returned to work after Thanksgiving.

But with more than 60 percent of U.S. homes sporting high-speed Internet, more people are flipping through those online catalogs at home, said Ken Cassar, vice president of The Nielsen Co.'s online research division.

As a result, more online stores aren't waiting until Monday to get the party going. They're throwing their own Black Friday events. Some, including Amazon.com, are doing deals every day this week.

That doesn't mean Cyber Monday will evaporate, however. That's because some people still shop at work, away from the prying eyes of family members. It's become more of a marketing hook that retailers want to keep alive.

“Retailers liked the marketing focus,” Cassar said. “It remains a big shopping day, but it's now fueled more by retailer marketing and promotion.”

That means online merchants will be out in force trumpeting Cyber Monday specials.

More merchants say they plan to offer some type of promotion such as free shipping or extra discounts Monday, 87 percent compared with 83 percent last year, according to a survey by Shop.org, the online division of the National Retail Federation. Shop.org's Web page this year lists Cyber Monday specials offered by 650 of its member merchants.

The shipping promotions figure to come with fewer strings, said Scott Silverman, Shop.org's executive director. Half of the online merchants planning to eliminate shipping charges said they will not impose conditions, such as minimum order amounts, up from 25 percent of retailers in 2005.

Whether that will help lift online retail sales this holiday is up for debate. Shop.org, whose members tend to be bigger merchants, said a survey of 60 retailers showed 70 percent of respondents expected online sales to grow this holiday over last year.

But Cassar expects sales to be flat this holiday after falling 6 percent last year.

“There is high optimism among larger retailers,” he said, “but very low optimism among smaller online retailers who tend to struggle more.”

A Nielsen survey found that fewer people are planning to buy online this holiday, 63 percent this year compared with 71 percent last year. Of those who are planning to shop online, 31 percent said they plan to spend more than US$300, down from 42 percent last year.

Research company comScore, which tracks online spending, is projecting a 3 percent growth in holiday spending online, to US$28.8 billion from US$28 billion last year. From Nov. 1 through Nov. 22, online sales have ticked up just 2 percent compared with a 4 percent decline in the same period last year.

“Online spending this holiday season will likely be tempered by the stark reality of 10 percent unemployment and less disposable income in many consumers' wallets,” comScore Chairman Gian Fulgoni said.

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