That is the latest outlook from forecasters in a survey to be released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics, also known by its acronym NABE. It will take time for any rays of light to poke through the economic clouds, though.

A growing number of economists believe the U.S. is on the brink of a recession or in one already, dragged down by all the problems in the housing, credit and financial markets. Now 56 percent of the economists think the economy has started or will enter a recession this year. That's up from 45 percent in a survey in February. If there is a recession, it probably will be short and shallow, economists said.

Forecasters downgraded their projections for economic growth. They now predict the economy, which grew by 2.2 percent last year, will slow to 1.4 percent this year. That's lower than the 1.8 percent growth projected in February. If the new figure proves correct, it would mark the weakest growth since the last recession in 2001.

Next year, the economy should grow by 2.3 percent, less than previously forecast and a pace that is still considered sub par.

"Although housing and credit markets will gradually loosen their grip, U.S economic growth is expected to only slowly return to health," said Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, president of NABE and chief economist at Ford Motor Co.

Given the outlook for sluggish overall economic activity, companies are likely to remain cautious in their spending and hiring.

The unemployment rate, which averaged 4.6 percent last year, will move higher. Forecasters predict the jobless rate will hit 5.3 percent this year and 5.6 percent next year.

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