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Kaspersky believes Android will dominate mobile market

BARCELONA--Computer security expert Eugene Kaspersky predicted on Tuesday that Google's Android smart phone operating system will come to dominate the market, reducing Apple and BlackBerry to niche players.

Kaspersky, who founded the leading anti-virus firm Kaspersky Lab, said there is only "one company, one operating system which follows Microsoft's strategy of the 1990s" when its Windows computer operating system became dominant on personal computers.

"I believe that if Apple, BlackBerry, Microsoft ... don't change their strategy very soon we will soon have the same mobile operating system landscape as we have with computers," he told journalists on the sidelines of the mobile phone industry's annual get-together in Barcelona.

Kaspersky predicted Android would eventually end up with 80 percent of the smart phone market, with Apple's iPhone and RIM's BlackBerry sharing the rest with 10 percent each.

Android dethroned Nokia's Symbian as the top smart phone operating system in the final quarter of 2010 by units shipped, according to market research company Canalys, with its market share leaping from 8.7 percent in 2009 to 32.5 percent last year.

Kaspersky's forecast comes amid a major shake-up in the smart phone market.

Nokia, which had difficulties mounting a response to the rise of Android and Apple's iPhone, announced last week it was phasing out Symbian and switching to Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 smart phone operating system.

Kaspersky said Microsoft was not repeating for mobiles the strategy of working closely with developers that ensured the success of Windows for personal computers but was instead keeping tight control over Windows Phone 7 like Apple does with its iOS.

Both Microsoft chief Steve Ballmer and Nokia's Stephen Elop have emphasized here at the Mobile World Congress they intend to work closely with developers to ensure that outside developers create lots of applications for Windows Phone7 to ensure its popularity with consumers.

February 17, 2011    jpike243@
Kaspersky is right.

Android is the new Windows, as most people will use an Android phone.

iPhone will be the niche, just like Apple Mac computers are the niche.

Microsoft was too late to the party, and its Windows Phone will not survive.
February 23, 2011    Beneteau95@
Microsoft charged for their OS. Google is giving it away free. This is not the 90's..get real. The market is not about the OS, it's the Eco system that supports the devices and apps. Without that you have a smart phone within a dumb environment.
February 24, 2011    braccer@
There may very well only be “ company, one operating system which follows Microsoft's strategy of the 1990s...” but history also teaches us that MS's strategy in that period consisted of illegal activities.

As such, is this really the appropriate business model to recommend emulating?

February 24, 2011    tugando@
There is a huge shift from PCs to smart phones and tablets. Windows will become a business PC oriented OS, while your everyday consumer will use either a tablet or smart phone running Android. The shift is clear to me.
April 8, 2011    lechman@
Right now, Blackberry's tablet release has been delayed because Apple's buying all the parts. Other companies so far haven't even been able to release a comparable product for a comparable price. And even then, they're still not delivering the experience Apple does. This isn't 1995 and Android is not Windows. BTW, have you heard that Google is now clamping down on Android, requiring any alterations or additions to the OS to be approved by their people. Not to mention that Honeycomb is now under Google's lock and key. The "open" platform is starting to close, folks. But that's cool, hating Apple will solve everything.
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