Nuclear power is reviving worldwide - Part 2

In Britain, such calculations led to a striking reversal in policy. In 2003, a government white paper called nuclear power an unattractive option; in May, Prime Minister Tony Blair declared that nuclear power is “back on the agenda with a vengeance.”

Blair argued that the technology is a way to ensure British energy security in an unstable world and to combat global climate change—a top priority of his government. Twenty-three nuclear plants now provide almost 20 percent of the United Kingdom’s power, and Blair has called for a new mix of non-polluting sources, including nuclear plants and renewable alternatives.

“In the future, energy security will be almost as important as defense,” Blair said in October.

Similar jitters about the reliability — and price — of traditional fuels are adding to the rush to nuclear. Japan, as host to the 1997 Kyoto conference that mandated a global reduction in greenhouse gases, is building three and planning 10 more nuclear plants in the next decade. Its plans are spurred by Japan’s wariness over neighboring China’s campaign to lock up oil and gas supply contracts with foreign countries.

“The timing of Kyoto Protocol coming into effect and the timing of China endeavoring in its mission to secure natural resources in the world coincide,” said Tadao Yanase, director of nuclear energy policy at Japan’s Agency for Natural Resources and Energy.

China’s plans call for 15 to 30 new nuclear plants by 2020 and even more conventional plants, most of them coal-fired. Its researchers are working on creating smaller, less-expensive nuclear plants. India, with 16 nuclear plants, is building seven more plants and has been promised U.S. help to triple its collection by 2020.

Some nuclear construction will merely keep the status quo. The first big wave of nuclear plants, built in the 1970s and 1980s, are near their planned obsolescence; six have been shut down. Regulators in the United States have extended licenses to 60 years, but other countries are replacing aging plants to make sure the nuclear component of their base supply does not disappear.

Proliferation of nuclear material remains a worry. And another disaster like the Soviet Union’s at Chernobyl in 1986 or a near-disaster like that at Pennsylvania’s Three Mile Island in 1979 would likely freeze the plans for nuclear construction.

“The industry is sticking its head in the sand,” said Jim Riccio, a policy analyst at anti-nuclear Greenpeace in Washington. “They haven’t gotten close to addressing safety or security.”

Because nuclear fission emits no greenhouse gases, some environmental groups have grudgingly concluded that nuclear power is preferable to global warming. Others still argue that aggressive conservation and a dramatic increase in solar, wind, thermal and biofueled production can meet future electric needs.

“The voices of opposition have drastically decreased,” Yanase said in his office in Tokyo. “They obviously won’t say they totally support” nuclear power, “but they are giving a tacit consent.”

Industry advocates say the old complaints about nuclear technology have been addressed with simpler and cheaper designs, faster regulatory review, improved security and more operating experience.

“Things have changed,” said Adrian Heymer, director of new plant deployment for the Nuclear Energy Institute in Washington. The industry expects U.S. companies to apply for 11 construction permits by the end of the decade. “When you put it all together, nuclear becomes an attractive package,” he said.

Companies and countries that build nuclear plants are riding that pitch. Westinghouse Electric Co., which has made about half the world’s reactors, signed a deal with China in December to help in construction of four nuclear plants there.

“There is a lot of opportunity now — in Southeast Asia, in the Near East and Europe,” Valery Arabkin, an official at Rosenergoatom, the Russian entity that competes with Westinghouse, said in an interview in Moscow. “These are good markets for Russia.”

Russia is building two reactors in China, two in India and one in Iran. It just signed a US$5.1 billion deal to build two reactors in Bulgaria and is sniffing out business in Finland, Indonesia and Egypt.

Russia’s own nuclear industry is rebounding after years of neglect. President Vladimir Putin wants to sell the country’s natural gas abroad and offset the exported energy by increasing nuclear power production, now provided by 31 reactors. That involves an ambitious program to build 42 more reactors in Russia by 2030, Sergey Kiriyenko, director of the Federal Nuclear Agency, or Rosatom, said in testimony before parliament last month.

“I don’t think it can be done,” said Vladimir Slivyak, co-chairman of Ecodefense, which has been urging the government to use more of the country’s natural gas at home and develop wind and hydropower.

Critics say that when the emissions from uranium mining and plant construction are counted, nuclear power is not “carbon-free,” as advocates assert. Such environmental concerns have put Germany on an opposite course from most European countries. Six years ago, Germany committed to shutting down all of its 17 nuclear power plants by 2021, prodded by the Greens party, then part of the government.

The most populous country in Western Europe, Germany will be hard-pressed to compensate for loss of its nuclear power while also meeting promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cut back on gas and oil deliveries from its chief supplier, Russia. Some people are calling for an extension of the nuclear deadline. But nuclear power remains unpopular among Germans, who often express strong pride over the giant windmills that are an increasingly common sight on the country’s plains.

“There really is no support in Germany to rely on nuclear energy as a means to help get rid of fossil fuels,” Reinhard Buetikofer, co-chairman of the Greens, said in an interview. “We would have to build another 50 to 60 nuclear power plants in Germany. This is unthinkable.”

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