Asia still lacks comprehensive flu pandemic plan, experts say

Experts fear the H5N1 bird flu virus could mutate into a form easily passed from person to person, creating a powerful new strain of influenza that could catch governments off guard and kill millions of people worldwide.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said only seven Asian governments have approved plans to fight a flu pandemic, even though sixty people have died of bird flu in Asia since 2003.

“Areas where we currently see a great deal of H5N1 activity — Southeast Asian countries like Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia — loom large on our surveillance screen,” said Bob Dietz, a WHO spokesman.

“But the reality is H5N1 activity in a certain place does not mean that we will see a pandemic start there. It could start anywhere. And as always, poorer nations are more vulnerable to disease than wealthier ones.”

The Washington Post reported Sunday that US scientists have tested a vaccine that appears effective against H5N1 but more tests are needed, and whether enough can be produced to meet demand remains an issue. The big concern is that H5N1 would mingle with the ordinary flu virus, perhaps in someone who is suffering from influenza, or with an intermediary animal such as the pig, which can harbor both avian and human flu viruses.

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That way, a mass killer could emerge: a virus that is both lethal and contagious.

Asia was hit hard by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003. SARS was first detected in southern China in late 2002 and spread by travellers globally to infect over 8,000 people, leaving nearly 800 dead.

SARS raised awareness about the need for cross-border cooperation, but preparations for bird flu remain uneven across the region.

“Many countries in the Western Pacific still do not have a (pandemic) plan of their own — only seven have completed plans that have been approved by their governments,” Dietz told AFP.

“Several others have completed their plans but are waiting for government approval. Others are in various stages of draft preparation,” he said.

Highly developed Singapore, which lost 33 people to SARS in 2003, is one of the few countries which have put anti-pandemic plans into place despite having virtually no agricultural sector.

The health ministry said that, although there was no vaccine available, it had already begun buying Tamiflu, a drug currently used for the treatment of the type A influenza.

China claims to have developed two new vaccines which it says are fully capable of stopping the spread of H5N1 bird flu, giving it enough cover if a pandemic breaks out.

“Experiments show the efficiency rate of the newly developed vaccines in preventing infection by the H5N1 virus is 100 percent,” said Chen Hualan, director of the China National Bird Flu Reference Laboratory.

Other than claiming to have vaccines, China has never made public how much it has stockpiled nor its plans to immunize birds and humans should a pandemic break out.

Vietnam has only two major centers for treating people affected by bird flu, the Institute of Tropical Diseases in Hanoi and a similar facility in the southern economic capital, Ho Chi Minh City.

Internationally accepted tests to confirm whether suspected human cases of bird flu are positive are only done at two laboratories, one in each city,

Dr. Hans Troedsson, WHO’s representative in Vietnam, said a pandemic would be “horrendous” for the country, which might suffer hundreds of thousands of deaths.

In Thailand, public health authorities are relying on a 4.8 billion baht (US$116 million) emergency plan approved by the cabinet in January.

“We are closely monitoring and maintaining coordination with foreign countries, so we think that bird flu is under our control,” said Kitti Kittiampon, deputy director general of the disease control department.

Under the plan, Thailand must stockpile 150,000 doses of Tamiflu, based on expectations of a minimum 50,000 to 60,000 people infected, and up to one million people in the worst-case scenario.

Hong Kong health authorities meanwhile have stockpiled 3.7 million capsules of the anti-viral drug Oseltamivir.

Indonesia’s Health Minister Siti Fadillah Supari said the government had imposed firm measures to prevent a pandemic.

“We are still providing free vaccines for farmers and urge people to report to designated hospitals for any bird flu-related health complaints,” she said.

The government has said at least 9.5 million birds and poultry have died since H5N1 was first confirmed in Indonesia. Jakarta has launched a massive vaccination drive but has been criticized for limited culling.

In South Korea, health authorities said they had been increasing their inventory of flu vaccines but declined to reveal the amount stockpiled.

“We have also been scanning visitors returning from North Korea to check body temperature but there have been no suspected case so far,” a health ministry official said.

In Japan, once an avian flu outbreak is confirmed, authorities kill all birds at affected farms with the bodies either incinerated or disinfected with chemicals. Authorities shut down affected farms for thorough disinfection and ban human traffic to and from the farms.

The government also imposes a three-week ban on the transport of birds, their meat and eggs from farms within 30 kilometers (20 miles) of an outbreak.

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