The United States, Japan and others have turned a hopeful eye on China as the most likely outside catalyst for change. Beijing is Myanmar's biggest trading partner, largest military supplier and its closest ally, with a cross-border oil pipeline already helping fuel its booming economy. A stable, friendly Myanmar on its southern flank remains a geopolitical priority.

But some Chinese academics and diplomats say the international community may be overestimating what Beijing can do to shape events inside the country.

"I actually don't think China can influence Burma at all except through diplomacy. China's influence is not at all decisive," says Peking University Southeast Asia expert Liang Yingming.

Despite its status as the world's largest democracy, India has switched from a vocal opponent of the junta to one currying favor with the generals as it struggles to corner energy supplies for its own rapidly expanding economy.

With masses of demonstrators led by Buddhist monks swirling through Yangon last Sunday, India's petroleum minister was in Myanmar signing gas and oil exploration contracts with the government.

Southeast Asian countries _ potential agents for change in Myanmar _ last week issued one of their toughest statements, expressing "revulsion" over repression of the demonstrations and urging the military government to seek a political solution.

But the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, a 10-member bloc which includes Myanmar, has given no indication that it is even considering an expulsion or taking any other action.

ASEAN has in the past chastised the West for confronting Myanmar rather than pursuing a low-key "Asian-style" approach to political change in Myanmar. But a series of such attempts _ including "constructive engagement," "flexible engagement" and "enhanced interaction" _ have to date failed.

And Myanmar has not repaid such a gentle touch in kind. During the ASEAN Summit in 2004, the bloc's leaders stood red-faced before the international community as member Myanmar announced it was extending Suu Kyi's house arrest.

"Myanmar has been playing around them (ASEAN members) from day one. It has always said, `Be patient ... in a matter of time we will restore democracy.' ASEAN on its part has been saying `It's OK, we will give you a chance.' It's all a play, like a puppet show," said a former senior ASEAN official, who requested anonymity given his current sensitive position.

As governments from Australia to France heap criticism on the junta, Myanmar and foreign activists have been calling for concrete, urgent action.

"The world cannot fail the people of Burma again," said the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, an exile group based in Thailand. "Selfless sacrifices deserve more than words and lip-service. They want effective intervention before it is too late."

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